Active Bets

geopolitics contrarian 6d

Iran retaliates against the US naval blockade before the April 22 ceasefire deadline

52%

8 for / 6 against this week

tech contrarian 76d

At least one AI infrastructure startup valued above $10B in Q1 2026 sees a down round or collapses within this quarter

38%

11 for / 26 against this quarter

geopolitics contrarian 4d

Vietnam upgrades its relationship with China to "comprehensive strategic partnership" tier during To Lam's visit

73%

13 for / 0 against this week

geopolitics standard 44d

The Trump-Xi May summit produces no binding agreement on Chinese weapons supply to Iran

79%

33 for / 0 against this month

energy standard 76d

European airports face physical jet fuel rationing before the end of June 2026

75%

48 for / 1 against this quarter

geopolitics contrarian 15d

The US-Iran Hormuz ceasefire expires without a permanent deal, and Brent spikes back above $105

62%

36 for / 10 against this month